Counting Eskom chickens 

Energy expert Anton Eberhard has urged caution in celebrating Eskom’s improving energy availability factor (EAF), cautioning against premature optimism.  

While Eskom’s power plant performance has shown improvement, Eberhard highlights that the numbers do not indicate a significant turnaround for the struggling state-owned power utility. The historical trend of improved generator unit availability during winter is not a definitive indicator of sustained improvement.  

Eberhard refers to data showing that this year’s EAF remains worse than the same period last year. He suggests that sustained improvement over several months and increased power generation capacity are necessary before celebrating the end of power cuts in South Africa.  

Factors contributing to reduced load-shedding include lower-than-expected residual demand, decreased industrial demand, increased self-dispatched wind energy, and the impact of distributed solar power. Eberhard also raises concerns about the funding of Eskom’s expenditure on diesel for its peaking power stations. 

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